← Curio Grand Archive HVN Regionals
Fire ArcaneTier 2
at Curio Grand Archive HVN Regionals
decks
3
(5.3% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
17
4-10-3
overall winrate
32.4%
ELO-adjusted winrate
34.7%
avg ELO -6.1 per match
expected value
44.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
44.5%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1248
· median 1253
· range 1231–1262
(3 pilots with an ELO rating)
989
Q1 1179
Q3 1378
1656
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Water Fractal | 12.3% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 34.6% | -14.7 |
| Water Genbu | 12.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.1% | -11.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 10.5% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 37.3% | -20.3 |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 10.5% | 4 | 2-0-2 | 75.0% | 62.5% | 56.5% | +4.2 |
| Wind Allies | 8.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.5% | -7.3 |
| Wind Luxem Zander | 7.0% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Seiryuu | 7.0% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 51.0% | +1.6 |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 3.5% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.9% | +17.4 |
| Fire Aggro | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Firebloom Burn | 1.8% | 2 | 0-2-0 | 0.0% | 33.3% | 31.8% | -17.5 |
| Fire Kongming | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 38.6% | -18.3 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Seiryuu | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 44.6% | -8.7 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Tera Kongming | 1.8% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 39.6% | -16.6 |
| Wind Arcane | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Beast | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Cats | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Exia | 1.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 54.9% | +7.9 |
| Wind Lorraine | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Tamer | 1.8% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 3 from this event
The 3 public Fire Arcane decklists from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
